Here’s a couple of concepts to address:
1 – Is your budget for ONE product really $30,000? Because I would probably limit your FIRST product to like $15,000 just so you don’t go so far into one product too deep as you need to gain experience before going too big on one product.
2 – You ALWAYS want 3-4 months of inventory. It takes 20-30 days to CREATE most products. Then it takes 20-45 days to SHIP most products. This means you have to order 2 months out for any reorders. So, in your example if you only order enough for the launch and 1 month, you will be out of stock for at least 1 month, and your launch will have been wasted as you will lose all your ranking and the effort you put into it will be pointless.
3 – You only have about 5 products on this list. Did you do the product ideation exercise to get more like 30+ ideas? And then did you take the top 20-30 products and add them to the PAB without filtering whether you thought they were too hard to sell?
4 – YOU can’t make your own competition. You can’t filter out top sellers from your numbers. THEY are the people you are looking to compete against. Taking their numbers out just means you are planning for failure, because you are not properly understanding what it takes to get to page 1 and compete. You are essentially waiving the white flag before you even start. If the top competitors are doing 300+ units a day, and the rest are doing over 30 a day, that product is VERY competitive and probably means you will need a small fortune to compete on that page.
5 – You CAN compete on any product on Amazon no matter how competitive, but it will just mean you need to spend a LOT of money if you plan to get to page 1 and stay. This is why we look for products that have only 1-3 products that have over 1000 sales (or $10,000/month). Because if there are more than 5 or 6 that means you will struggle to compete as they are good sellers with lots of volume, and it will be hard to pass them quickly without spending a lot of money on launch & promo units.
6 – Products that are over 30% and 100% ROI are still doable, but yeah, see if you can rework some COGs to get even better numbers. If not, put those products on the backburner for now.
In the end, the main issue you are struggling with here is this:
You are not analyzing enough products — add more products to the list before you start looking for “the one” 🙂